要了解中国行业的现状，必须结合全球和历史的背景。私募股权这个行业本身与当地的GDP水平密切相关；在发达国家，通常会有相当于5%-10%GDP的资金投入到私募股权的募资和投资中。而在中国，这个数字在20年前只有0.5%左右，意味着10倍增长潜力。再结合过去20年中国的GDP增长了十倍这个数据，私募股权行业如此显著的增长也就不足为奇了。

近年来，随着大型机构投资者和基金管理人在本国以外寻求更好的风险调整回报，中国的私募股权行业已经显著的全球化。而这种趋势自新冠疫情爆发以来已经加速。相比于世界许多地区，中国更好地经受住了疫情的影响，巩固了其作为全球投资中心的吸引力。TMT、硬科技、消费、房地产和物流等行业正在引起越来越多的投资者兴趣——我们预计这种情况会持续很长一段时间。

然而，在不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势中，中国试图将其国民经济和科技举措与世界其他地区脱钩。更多的资金被引导至这些国家级项目的研发及商业化工作，为促进这一进程，监管部门正使用一些措施来使国内资本市场更加宽松。资本市场由审批制到注册制的转变以及上海证券交易所科创板的提出推出就是这一趋势的重要例证。

尽管有这种向内转移的趋势，但投资中国本土基金和公司的大门仍然为国际资本敞开。近年来，原有的外商投资法律法规作了大幅修订，为全球投资者创造了一个公平的营商环境，且更多的合法渠道被推出和扩大，以吸引国际资本进入中国的一级和二级市场。

我相信美元和人民币基金将在中国长期共存。近十年来，人民币募资市场已经从原始阶段发展到较为成熟的阶段，但仍不及美国募资市场的成熟度。然而，中国本土私募股权市场有其独特的地方特色。国有资本在LP市场占据主导地位，对于他们来讲，资金储备和风险控制是超越风险调整收益的首要目标。过去五年，中国基金业协会（AMAC）和其他中央和地方监管机构建立了一个复杂的监管体系，所有私募基金及其管理人现在都必须在其中运作。

体现美元和人民币基金如何在中国相互作用的最好的例子可能是QFLP和QDLP试点。QFLP试点允许境外GP和LP在中国境内设立混合基金进行股权投资，而QDLP试点允许境外GP（主要是公开交易证券的管理人）从有兴趣进行境外投资的中国LP募资。QFLP试点于2010年在上海启动，并在过去十年中扩展到全国20多个试点地区。由于QFLP基金通常主要由离岸资本提供资金，因此美元基金通常由同一发起人管理。另一方面，QFLP基金是根据中国法律以及AMAC和其他监管机构的规则运营的在中国注册的实体。

主要因素包括(i)针对基金及其管理人的税务政策，(ii)对私募股权行业的轻监管，(iii)LP群体的进一步成熟，(iv)更稳定的资本市场退出机会，(v)更活跃和有效的并购和收购市场，以及(vi)更成熟的私募股权二级市场。

简而言之，在像中国这类充满活力的私募股权环境中运营一个基金非常具有挑战性的。私募股权监管在中央和地方层面都在不断发展；税收政策因省而异，因城市而异；而资本市场规则也在不断修订和快速发展。为了更有效地应对这些挑战，我们在过去10年中建立了亚洲最大的私募股权法律团队之一。我们每年处理数百个基金设立、投资、并购和资本市场交易，并与主要市场利益相关者建立了庞大的知识库和网络。

私募股权行业正在迅速成熟，这从过去几年S基金的出现中可见一斑。S基金出现的部分原因是中国IPO退出渠道的不稳定性，但也说明私募一级市场已经达到一定规模。然而，由于市场上具备执行交易的专业S基金数量有限，以及缺乏专门从事这一小众领域且经验丰富的中介机构，中国的私募股权二手份额市场仍然受到限制。综上所述，我们认为私募股权二手份额市场在中国仍需要一些年时间才能发展到实质性规模。

更多专业的并购交易和并购基金也在不断出现。尽管中国的并购基金无法获得与西方同行们相同级别的杠杆，并且通常将控制权和重要少数股权投资相结合，但它们正变得更加专业化。许多并购团队具有产业（如生命科学和医疗大健康）或投资银行背景，可以与企业合作伙伴甚至上市公司进行更密切的战略合作。

最后，同样重要的是，ESG已成为中国政府、监管机构、机构LP和头部私募股权基金的关注焦点。自从今年早些时候政府宣布将碳中和计划作为国家战略以来，中国头部私募股权基金对其兴趣迅速增长，进而催生了大型碳中和人民币基金的设立。毫无疑问，中国的私募股权行业正在变得越来越丰富、复杂且对外资越来越有吸引力。

To understand the current state of the industry in China, you must consider both global and historical contexts. Private equity correlates closely with local GDP levels; in the developed world, private equity capital raised or invested annually as a percentage of GDP typically falls in the 5-10% range. For China, this figure was around only 0.5% 20 years ago, implying a tenfold growth potential. When coupled with China’s tenfold GDP growth over the past two decades, it is unsurprising that the private equity industry has expanded so remarkably. 

China’s private equity industry has globalized significantly in recent years, as major institutional investors and fund managers have sought better risk-adjusted returns outside of their home countries. This trend has accelerated since the outbreak of COVID-19. China weathered the impact of the pandemic comparatively better than many parts of the world, solidifying its attractiveness as a global investment hub. Sectors across technology, media, & telecoms; hard & core technologies; consumption; real estate; and logistics are generating increasing investor interest – we expect this to continue for quite some time.

However, amid escalating geopolitical tensions, China has sought to decouple its national economy and science & technology initiatives from the rest of the world. More capital is being directed to this national research & development effort, as well as the commercialization of these domestic opportunities. To facilitate this process, regulatory measures have sought to increasingly liberalize domestic capital markets. The switch from an approval model to a registration model and the creation of the SSE STAR Market (Sci-Tech Innovation Board) in Shanghai is an important example of this trend.

Despite this inward pivot, the door remains open for international capital to invest in funds and companies domiciled in China. Old laws governing foreign investment have been amended in recent years to create a level playing field for global investors, and more legal channels have been created or expanded to attract international capital to China’s private and public markets.

It is my belief that USD and RMB funds will continue to co-exist in China for a very long time. Over the past decade, the RMB fundraising market has evolved from a primitive stage to a more mature one, but it still lacks the sophistication of the US fundraising market. China’s private equity market has its own unique local characteristics, however. State-owned capital dominates in the LP market, for which capital reservation and risk control are the primary goals over and above risk-adjusted return. Over the past five years, the Asset Management Association of China (AMAC) and other central and local regulators have built a complex regulatory system in which all private funds and their managers now must operate.

Probably the best way to illustrate the interplay of USD and RMB funds in China is through QFLP and QDLP. These are pilot programs through which foreign GPs and LPs can form hybrid funds domiciled in China (inbound), and foreign GPs may tap into capital from Chinese LPs that are interested in investing outside of China (outbound, primarily for managers of publicly traded securities). The QFLP pilot program was incepted in Shanghai in 2010, and has spread to over 20 pilot regions across the country over the past decade. As QFLP funds are typically primarily funded by offshore capital, oftentimes the USD fund is managed by the same sponsor. On the other hand, QFLP funds are China-domiciled entities operating under PRC law and rules of AMAC and other regulators.

The primary factors include (i) taxation of funds and their managers, (ii) regulation-lite approach to the private equity industry, (iii) further maturation of the LP community, (iv) more stable capital market exit opportunities, (v) a more active and effective M&A and buyout market, and (vi) a more mature private equity secondary market.

In short, operating in a dynamic private equity environment like China’s is very challenging. Private equity regulations are constantly evolving at both central and local levels; tax rules vary from province to province and from city to city; and capital market rules are being revamped and quickly evolving. To cope with such challenges more effectively, we’ve built one of the largest private equity legal teams in Asia over the past 10 years. We work on hundreds of fund formation, investment, M&A, and capital markets transactions every year and have built a vast knowledge bank and network with key market stakeholders. 

The industry is maturing rapidly, as is evident from the emergence of secondary funds in the past few years. This was partly fuelled by the instability of IPO exit channels in China, but also indicates the primary market has reached a certain scale. The secondary market in China is still constrained, however, by the limited number of secondary funds with expertise to execute deals, and the shortage of experienced intermediaries that specialize in this niche area. Taken together, we believe the private equity secondary market will still take some years to grow to a substantive size in China.

More specialized buyout deals and funds are emerging, too. While buyout funds in China don’t have access to the same kind of leverage as Western peers, and typically make a combination of control and significant minority investments, they are becoming more specialized. Many buyout teams have backgrounds in industry (e.g., life sciences and healthcare) or investment banking, allowing for closer strategic alignment with corporate partners or even public companies.

Last but not least, ESG has become a focal point for the Chinese Government, regulators, institutional LPs, and major private equity funds. Since the government announced carbon neutrality as a national strategy earlier this year, interest from major private equity firms in China has grown rapidly, leading to the formation of major carbon-neutrality RMB funds. I have no doubt China ‘s private equity industry is becoming more and more diverse, sophisticated and attractive to foreign players.